The Widening Gap in Belief Between Red and Blue States Is Driving a Growing Animus to the Free Expression of Religion

​The late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg once said, “It is hard not to have a big year at the Supreme Court.” Is that still true? What if the Supreme Court dropped an opinion and it made no sound?
 
The High Court has repeatedly come down on the side of assuring equal treatment for religious people – from protecting the right of religious schools to participate in “universal” state scholarship programs, to the right to personal religious expression, to the right of religious charities to participate in publicly funded programs.
 
And yet many states – from Maine to Colorado – keep coming back with regulations and state rulings contrary to those of the Supreme Court. Novel legal theories are being advanced, such as the ongoing attempt by Pennsylvania to switch from discriminating against Catholic participation in a charitable exemption – a policy previously knocked down by the Supreme Court – to discriminating against all religions in favor of secular charities.
 
Maine’s attempt to use clever legal tweaks after Carson v. Makin (2024) – in which the Court held that a state antidiscrimination law meant that religious schools could not be excluded from a state tuition program for private schools – threatens to revive the nullification-style legal approach of the Confederacy.
 
What, then, is behind this determination by some states to defy the clear principles set down by the Supreme Court by continuing to try to exclude religious charities and organizations from equal participation in public programs?
 
It’s easy to just say “politics.” But to fully understand this political dynamic, we must look first at the widening gulf between voters of blue and red states on questions of belief.
 
According to the Pew Research Religious Landscape Study, 78 percent of Americans identified as Christian in 2007, with another 5 percent adhering to Judaism, Islam, or another religion. In 2024, 62 percent of Americans identified as Christian, with a slight bump up to 7 percent for other religions.
 
The decline in Christian observance has not been geographically uniform. It is concentrating in the blue polarity of the color spectrum.
 
For example, 77 percent of adults in South Carolina and Mississippi identify as Christian. Bright red South Dakota is 79 percent Christian. But in blue Colorado, the percent of state residents identifying as Christian dropped from 67 percent in 2007 to 52 percent last year. Maine saw a precipitous drop from 72 percent to 51 percent.
 
Pennsylvania’s Christian identification fell from 82 percent to 62 percent. Similar declines can be seen in blue states, from Massachusetts and New York to California. Many of these states are close to minority status for the nation’s largest religion. Oregon is already there, only 43 percent Christian.
 
The First Amendment, of course, protects any and all religion, including conversion to other religions and to no religion at all. But this widening gap between the states is concerning because it coincides with a growing politicization of a principle that, up until now, has been considered sacred by Americans of all beliefs – the free exercise of religion (including the right not to be religious).
 
The Freedom from Religion Foundation (FFRF) poses as a neutral force to keep church and state separate. But in many domains, from charity to education, strict secularism is not neutral, as seen in Pennsylvania’s attempt to elevate secular charities over religions ones. (The mirror image of such thinking would be efforts by red state politicians who want to place explicitly religious, usually Protestant, content in public classrooms.) Cracking down on the speech of either secularism or religion violates the spirit and the letter of the First Amendment.
 
Yet, with growing non-religious populations in blue states, FFRF is having success in channeling political and legal action against the equitable treatment of religious speech and activities. We hope more lawmakers will come to see that this goes against the philosophy of the signers of the Constitution – many Protestants, two Catholics, and several deists who doubted Biblical miracles and the divinity of Jesus.
 
What the founders understood, we need to understand today: Government can – and must – respect the role of religious people and organizations without being religious itself.

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